Research

Publications

• (2022) “God is in the Rain: The Impact of Rainfall-Induced Early Social Distancing on COVID-19 Outbreaks” (with Ajay Shenoy, Bhavyaa Sharma, Rolly Kapoor, Haedong Rho, and Kinpritma Sangha)
  Journal of Health Economics 81: 102575
  Abstract

  We measure the benefit to society created by preventing COVID-19 deaths through a marginal increase in early social distancing. We exploit county-level rainfall on the last weekend before statewide lockdown in the early phase of the pandemic. After controlling for historical rainfall, temperature, and state fixed-effects, current rainfall is a plausibly exogenous instrument for social distancing. A one percent decrease in the population leaving home on the weekend before lockdown creates an average of 132 dollars of benefit per county resident within 2 weeks. The impacts of earlier distancing compound over time and mainly arise from lowering the risk of a major outbreak, yielding large but unevenly distributed social benefit.

Work in progress

• “Farm to Fridge: Digital Traceability and Quality Upgrading in Kenyan Dairy Value Chain”
  Pilot Complete
  Abstract
• “Green Shoots: Seeding a Market for Certified Cassava Cuttings among Cooperatives in Rwanda” (with Shilpa Aggarwal, Jonathan Robinson, Youngwoo Song, and Alan Spearot)
  Intervention Ongoing
  Abstract

  Many farmers in rural areas of developing countries do not use high quality inputs, either because sellers of quality inputs are located far away or because the quality of inputs cannot be ascertained easily. This not only keeps farmers' income low in the short run, but also has deleterious long-term consequences by preventing the development of value chains which requires reliable access to high quality farm output. In this study, we propose a pilot to establish a market for high-quality cassava planting materials among cooperatives in Rwanda. Working with IITA and RAB, we will randomly provide certification to cassava cooperatives, and supplement this with a demand stimulation intervention in which we will provide a subset of local farmers with information on crop diseases and how they can procure quality cassava planting material from certified cooperatives. We will measure impacts on crop diseases, profits and yields of cooperatives, as well as cassava planting and sourcing decisions of local farmers.

  [ATAI Project Overview]

• “Milky Way: Market Structure and Behaviour of Informal Traders in Kenyan Dairy Industry” (with Martin Nandelenga and Sophie Nottmeyer)
  Scoping Complete
  Abstract
• “Demand and Liquidity Coordination to Foster the Adoption for Livestock Vaccinations: An Experiment with Small-Holder Dairy Cooperatives in Kenya” (with Shilpa Aggarwal, Susan Godlonton, James Rao, Jonathan Robinson, Alan Spearot, and Nils Teufel)
  Intervention Ongoing
  Abstract

  East Coast Fever (ECF) is a deadly cattle disease transmitted by ticks. While an effective ECF vaccine exists, take-up is low in many areas. There are two main reasons for the low adoption: First, technically, the vaccine must be administered to a large number of animals at once (the minimum package size has enough dosage for 40 cattle), and so farmers with only a few cattle cannot access the vaccine individually. Second, the vaccine is expensive for small-scale farmers, costing about $320 for a 40-dose package (straw). We conduct a randomized controlled trial with 210 subunits (milk collection routes) within 39 dairy cooperatives in Kenya to evaluate the effect of a demand aggregation intervention (in which farmers are encouraged to vaccinate together) cross-cut with a “checkoff system” intervention (in which a percentage of milk sales is set aside at milk cooperatives to be allocated for vaccine purchase) on the adoption of ECF vaccine.

  Presented: [2021 SPIA Webinar Series]

• “The Value of Value Chains: An Experiment Linking Farmers’ Cooperatives with a Maize Processor in Rwanda” (with Shilpa Aggarwal, Susan Godlonton, Ammar Kawash, Jonathan Robinson, and Alan Spearot)
  Intervention Ongoing
  Abstract

  One way that farmers can improve their income and livelihoods is to transition from subsistence farming to market-driven, commercial agriculture in which output is sold into value chains. However, smallholder farmers typically do not sell their output to buyers in value chains, and one of the reasons is because their output often does not meet the required quality standards. We conduct a randomized controlled trial with 360 smallholder farmer cooperatives to evaluate the effects of providing farmers with access to maize processing services that could improve maize quality on their input decisions.

  [BASIS MRR Innovation Lab], [ATAI Project Overview], [J-PAL Project Overview]

• “Quantifying the Effect of Increased Output Prices on Input Usage: An Experiment with Rwanda’s Smart Subsidy System” (with Shilpa Aggarwal, Susan Godlonton, Jonathan Robinson, and Alan Spearot)
  Pilot Complete
  Abstract

  Like much of Sub-Saharan Africa, a contributing factor to low agricultural productivity in Rwanda is the low usage of modern inputs like chemical fertilizer and improved seeds. A primary cause of low input usage is that low and variable prices for crop sales at harvest-time may make farmers uncertain about the profitability of investing in improved inputs during the planting and growing seasons. We randomly offer a subset of mid-sized cooperatives a guarantee of the price they will receive at harvest time. With the government-led digital SNS database records of input usage in Rwanda, we quantify the effect of higher anticipated output prices at the end of the season on input utilization during the season and in subsequent seasons.

  [ATAI Project Overview]

• “Geography of Aid in Africa” (with Shilpa Aggarwal, Jonathan Robinson, and Alan Spearot)
  Draft Available Upon Request
  Abstract

  Rural households tend to be poor, and thus in greater need of aid. However, aid programs likely make trade-offs regarding how much aid to give and where to send it based on needs as well as operating costs. As delivering aid to those most in-need is likely the more costly, there are opportunities for misallocation in the provision of aid. We study the spatial distribution of aid and investigate whether there is spatial misallocation in aid provision.