Job Market Paper

Publication and Working Paper

  • (2022) “God is in the Rain: The Impact of Rainfall-Induced Early Social Distancing on COVID-19 Outbreaks” (with Ajay Shenoy, Bhavyaa Sharma, Rolly Kapoor, Haedong Rho, and Kinpritma Sangha)
    Journal of Health Economics 81: 102575
    Abstract
    We measure the benefit to society created by preventing COVID-19 deaths through a marginal increase in early social distancing. We exploit county-level rainfall on the last weekend before statewide lockdown in the early phase of the pandemic. After controlling for historical rainfall, temperature, and state fixed-effects, current rainfall is a plausibly exogenous instrument for social distancing. A one percent decrease in the population leaving home on the weekend before lockdown creates an average of 132 dollars of benefit per county resident within 2 weeks. The impacts of earlier distancing compound over time and mainly arise from lowering the risk of a major outbreak, yielding large but unevenly distributed social benefit.

  • “The Value of Value Chains: An Experiment Linking Farmers’ Cooperatives with a Maize Processor in Rwanda” (with Shilpa Aggarwal, Susan Godlonton, Ammar Kawash, Jonathan Robinson, and Alan Spearot)
    Draft Coming Soon [AEA RCT Registry]
    Funding: [BASIS MRR Innovation Lab], [ATAI], [J-PAL], [CEGA]
    Abstract
    Lack of access to output markets is a key barrier to productivity growth of agriculture in developing countries, because it reduces the profitability of investment in productivity. We conduct a field experiment with 180 maize-growing cooperatives in rural Rwanda where a treatment group received support from the WFP Farm to Market Alliance to form connections with processors, while a control group farmed as usual. We find that the program immediately increased the probability of selling into the formal output value chain, and dramatically increased revenue by 150%-300%, driven largely by large increases in land under cultivation and input usage.

Selected Works in Progress

  • “Green Shoots: Seeding a Market for Certified Cassava Cuttings among Cooperatives in Rwanda” (with Shilpa Aggarwal, Jonathan Robinson, Athanase Nduwumuremyi, Youngwoo Song, and Alan Spearot)
    Currently in the Field
    Funding: [ATAI], [CEGA]
    Abstract
    Many farmers in rural areas of developing countries do not use high-quality inputs, either because sellers of quality inputs are located far away or because the quality of inputs cannot be ascertained easily. This not only keeps farmers’ income low in the short run but also has deleterious long-term consequences by preventing the development of value chains that require reliable access to high-quality farm output. In this study, we establish a market for high-quality cassava planting materials among cooperatives in Rwanda. Working with RAB, we randomly provide certification to cassava cooperatives and supplement this with a demand stimulation intervention in which we provide a subset of local farmers with information on crop diseases and how they can procure quality cassava planting material from certified cooperatives. We measure impacts on crop diseases, profits, and yields of cooperatives, as well as cassava planting and sourcing decisions of local farmers.

  • “Milky Way: Market Structure and Behaviour of Informal Traders in Kenyan Dairy Industry” (with Martin Nandelenga and Sophie Nottmeyer)
    Currently in the Field
    Funding: [PEDL (CEPR/FCDO Initiative)]
    Abstract
    In the absence of formal contract enforcement, buyers and sellers in developing countries often rely on informal agreements to support repeated trade. This project investigates the existence and evolution of relational contracts between farmers and informal traders in the Kenyan dairy sector. We subsidize half of the traders’ milk collection in randomly selected villages during the wet season, when milk supply is abundant, and competition is lower. This allows us to study whether traders build new relationships and how farmers respond to the temporary presence of the new traders. Through GPS tracking and weekly surveys, the project collects data on trader mobility, sourcing decisions, and farmer-trader interactions. We consider both farmers’ and traders’ perspectives and look at different mechanisms to explain under what conditions traders may or may not develop relationships.

Older Projects

  • “Demand and Liquidity Coordination to Foster the Adoption for Livestock Vaccinations: An Experiment with Small-Holder Dairy Cooperatives in Kenya” (with Shilpa Aggarwal, Susan Godlonton, James Rao, Jonathan Robinson, Alan Spearot, and Nils Teufel)
    Funding: [CGIAR SPIA]
    Abstract
    East Coast Fever (ECF) is a deadly cattle disease transmitted by ticks. While an effective ECF vaccine exists, take-up is low in many areas. There are two main reasons for the low adoption: First, technically, the vaccine must be administered to a large number of animals at once (the minimum package size has enough dosage for 40 cattle), and so farmers with only a few cattle cannot access the vaccine individually. Second, the vaccine is expensive for small-scale farmers, costing about $320 for a 40-dose package (straw). We conduct a randomized controlled trial with 210 subunits (milk collection routes) within 39 dairy cooperatives in Kenya to evaluate the effect of a demand aggregation intervention (in which farmers are encouraged to vaccinate together) cross-cut with a “checkoff system” intervention (in which a percentage of milk sales is set aside at milk cooperatives to be allocated for vaccine purchase) on the adoption of ECF vaccine.
    Presentation: [2021 CGIAR SPIA Webinar]

  • “Quantifying the Effect of Increased Output Prices on Input Usage: An Experiment with Rwanda’s Smart Subsidy System” (with Shilpa Aggarwal, Susan Godlonton, Jonathan Robinson, and Alan Spearot)
    Funding: [ATAI]
    Abstract
    Like much of Sub-Saharan Africa, a contributing factor to low agricultural productivity in Rwanda is the low usage of modern inputs like chemical fertilizer and improved seeds. A primary cause of low input usage is that low and variable prices for crop sales at harvest-time may make farmers uncertain about the profitability of investing in improved inputs during the planting and growing seasons. We randomly offer a subset of mid-sized cooperatives a guarantee of the price they will receive at harvest time. With the government-led digital SNS database records of input usage in Rwanda, we quantify the effect of higher anticipated output prices at the end of the season on input utilization during the season and in subsequent seasons.

  • “Geography of Aid in Africa” (with Shilpa Aggarwal, Jonathan Robinson, and Alan Spearot)
    Draft Available Upon Request
    Abstract
    Rural households tend to be poor, and thus in greater need of aid. However, aid programs likely make trade-offs regarding how much aid to give and where to send it based on needs as well as operating costs. As delivering aid to those most in-need is likely the more costly, there are opportunities for misallocation in the provision of aid. We study the spatial distribution of aid and investigate whether there is spatial misallocation in aid provision.